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    微软小冰再战江湖——是哗众取宠的表演还是OTT的尝试?
    发稿作者:管理员   ‖  发布时间:2014-7-1 23:18:40  ‖  查看3116次  ‖  

    微软小冰再战江湖——是哗众取宠的表演还是OTT的尝试?在雅酷君之前的文章里,就曾经建议微软小冰如果要在国内无线互联网行业搞出点真正的动静的话,不妨换个战场。

    果不其然,在沉寂了一段时间以后,微软小冰终于再次重装上阵。只不过吸取上次的教训,这次换了战场,从微信换到了微博。就在上周,微软小冰在微薄以一句“好累啊~睡醒了~”,开始了自己的微博生涯。玩法很简单,你只需要@小冰,就可以直接把她召唤出来,陪你解闷,和你聊天,一时间,众宅男分别@小冰,大有把她玩坏的节奏。目前为之,小冰的微博账号已经拥有了53万,并且这个数量还在每天快速上升着。

    因为小冰每次现身江湖,都能引起巨大关注,因此就有文章提到,微软小冰不过是微软精心炮制的一次炒作。在微软战微信的战争中,表面上看虽然小冰被杀得不留。但实际上微信才是那个真正的受害者。微软不过是诱使微信大开杀戒,然后再大打悲情牌,从而一方面孤立微信,另一方面将自己置于创新者和弱者的一端,来换取更大的收益而已。事实真的这样吗?雅酷君觉得,炒作成分固然是有,但这只是战术层面的问题,是微软公关部门的一次成功的将计就计而已。而从战略层面,小冰无疑担负着更大的责任。

    之前提到过,微软小冰其实是老大巨头微软摆脱自己老态龙钟的形象,以全新姿态拥抱互联网的一次有益的尝试。这个全新姿态对微软来说,是不容易的,现在来看的话,他最起码以下几种新的玩法。

    更轻的载入方式

    不管是之前的微信平台上的小冰,还是现在满血复活的新小冰,我们都可以看到,小冰的产品设计,采用了目前看来轻到不能再轻的载入方式,使每个人的体验门槛降到几乎为零。在微信的时候,你只需要加她为好友,然后带入群聊就可以了。而微博上,更是只需要@一下她,她就被你召唤出来,这比阿拉丁召唤出灯神还要快一百倍好不好?雅酷君认为,如此之轻的载入方式,实际上是代表着无线互联网的未来的。回顾整个it历史我们就可以看到,不过哪个领域,都是一个越来越轻的进化过程。我们看到传统的it领域,我们的软件使用从C/S架构逐渐过渡到B/S架构。游戏领域从网络游戏逐渐过渡到网页游戏。而移动互联网,也必然经历这样的过程。这也是为什么即使在APP大行其道的年代,大家依然热捧HTML5的重要原因。当然,因为移动端输入的不便,移动端变轻不见得就是传统的web形式代替APP,而可能是全新的入口方式。比如微信公众号,就是一种更轻更便捷的方式,如果他未来不被微信官方给玩残了的话。而小冰的玩法,无疑在告诉我们,其实可能还有更轻的入口可以发掘,更轻的载入方式可以体验。

    更高层次的OTT

    所谓OTT,就是OVER THE TOP,过顶传球。这是一个篮球术语。套用在互联网界,泛指一切利用别人的平台或者管道提供自己的服务并获取商业利益的行为。这种例子举不胜举,比如苹果的APP STORE就是对运营商成功的OTT,而微信就是对运营商和操作系统的成功的OTT。同样,我们也可以看到,OTT有越来越高的趋势。一个产品在别的平台之上获得成功,并攫取了大量属于原平台的商业利益之后,也会逐渐把自己平台化,于是新的OTT就会出现。自己逐渐被新的应用平台化管道化。之所以一个互联网生态能够形成这样一种千层饼模样的OTT结构,主要是因为互联网产业在迅速发展,每个层面都在不断分化出新的商业机会。原来的平台虽然不甘心,但是也没有能力吃掉新分化出来的结构,因此不得不把这些机会出让给新的玩家,以确保平台能够持续发展。比如苹果OTT运营商。固然苹果在运营商平台之上变成了庞然大物。但苹果之前,运营商自己撸袖子干了这么多年,也没有干出什么事情来。所以,只要一个产业还在迅速发展,抽枝展叶,长出新的结构,新的OTT就会产生。微软小冰试图在已经成功的社交平台之上进行新的OTT尝试,无疑是在错失了系统机会之后,改变策略,试图在快速发展的移动互联网市场上,找到自己的全新位置。

    更亲民的体验设计

    看一看小冰和广大宅男的聊天我们就可以看到,这次小冰的设计还是非常亲民,非常中国化,非常网络语言的。这比之之前siri那种外交辞令浓厚的人类语言要生动的多,有趣得多,至少对中国人来说是这样的。则无疑得益于微软强大的人工智能后台的强大学习能力,使小冰能够迅速的学习中国的网络语言,把自己塑造成为一个年轻、有趣会卖萌的妹子。随着小冰在这个世界上存活的时间越来越长,我想,她的回答会更加像一个正常的人。这一方面是微软展现自己人工智能的有效窗口,另一方面也是积累更多数据,从而获得更高智能的有效方法。

    更深的战略企图

    移动互联网的战争该如何打?苹果三星把持了硬件,苹果google把持了系统,BAT们把持了入口,微软的机会在哪里?其实微软多年来技术积累是很多的,但进入移动时代之后,他的确已经丧失了太多的机会,以至于他的好技术都快变成酒香也怕巷子深了。在这样的一种情况下,对微软来说,试图再用一个重型武器颠覆江湖已经为时已晚,所以,选择一种轻前端重后端的结构才是一种明智之选。轻前端意味着她可以无处不再,PC、手机、pad、智能手表、智能眼镜,智能电视,只要智能设备能够到达的地方,她都可以存在,无缝覆盖,这像不像钢铁侠的机器人管家贾维斯?而重后端则意味着强大的人工智能和大数据处理能力,这颗星球上能够玩得起这个的玩家屈指可数,而微软肯定是其中之一。所以,说到这里,你就不难理解为什么微信直接手起刀落,让小冰血流成河了吧。

    更未来的布局

    未来属于什么?无疑,微软认为,是人工智能。无论小冰表现如何,至少先混个眼熟,让广大宅男们知道,人工智能软妹子这东西,可不是只有他们苹果家才有。未来十年,当互联网接管了一切设备,人工智能的时代可能就要真的来临。从这种意义上来说,国内的百度反而是最高瞻远瞩的一家企业。虽然现在BAT大战中暂落下风,但人工智能时代咸鱼翻身的可能性很大,当然,前提是入口一定要握在自己手里啊。要不,咱们也出个“度娘”?

    扯远了。

    当然,前面所说的一切,只不过是雅酷君主管臆断,如有雷同,实属英明。但是对微软来说,这个如意算盘要真的变成如意算盘,可能还存在诸多不确定性。处理不好,就会变成一场哗众取宠的闹剧。

    首先,OTT是否伤害平台。

    所有成功的OTT,都是在不损害平台既得利益的前提下才能成功的。如果产品设计不好,给平台带来大量的负面影响,雅酷君要说,没有任何一个平台会容忍这样一个OTT产品。微信之战就是前车之鉴。而微博上,也露出了这种征兆。过多的刷屏和插科打诨,影响了之前评论的连贯性,很多微博下面的评论就这样被小冰带到了沟里。以至于周鸿祎都在微博上提出要见一见小冰的产品经理,讨论一下产品设计。是的,如果微博的评论全都变成了一个主题——调戏小冰,那离小冰阵亡的时间也就不远啦。好在之后小冰即使调整了策略,提出了机器人聊天三原则。后效如何,拭目以待。

    其次,人工智能目前是否已经能够经受考验。

    就像之前的siri,刚出现时,大家兴趣浓厚,远胜现在的小冰,但过一段时间之后,就少有人提及了。究其原因,无非是人们发现人工智能目前这个阶段实在是干不了什么事情。而小冰是否能通过巧妙的设计掩盖人工智能的缺陷,使之成为一个真正通情达理,会卖萌,会记事,会回答问题,会帮您提醒事情的乖巧性感小秘书,这是考验小冰的产品团队的。

    第三、其他类小冰的出现会不会搅混水。

    是的,我们可以相信,拥有强大后端,能够做出一个小冰的公司这个星球上没有几个。但是造出一个更白痴的小冰搅混水的公司,这颗星球上还是有很多的。如果水被搅混了,小冰自然不会有啥好下场。所以对小冰来说,时间不多,趁着水清,快点展现出你的楚楚魅力吧。当然,为了避免诸多白痴同类的出现,微软也许可以搞一个开放接口,让小冰多几个表兄表妹,大家一起玩,必然前途无量。

                  
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